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In 2024, it has resumed its relentless march TRADE #3: Long Life Science Tools / Short Semicap for a hard landing hard Trade Construction: Long life science tools: A, BRKR, CRL, DHR, ILMN, RGEN Short semi cap: AMAT AMKR ASML TEL LRCX KLAC The interest rate hiking cycle and the rising cost of capital favored companies with near-term cash flows over those with longer duration cash flows This caused violent rotations within sectors like technology and healthcare In technology, this rotation hurt software companies and favored Mag 7 – and, by extension, the semiconductor supply chain that benefits from Mag 7 CapEx In healthcare, the rotation favored defensive, cash flow generative companies like LLY at the expense of the biotech sector – and, by extension, hurt the life science tools industry that is dependent on biotech R&D spend We see tangible evidence that the cyclical bust in life science tools has bottomed, with the long leg of this trade positioned to benefit in many economic scenarios, but given the historically defensive nature of the industry and the benefit of lower rates for the biotech sector, a weakening economy would be much more favorable for this industry than most Meanwhile, a more severe recession would hit demand for semi capital equipment at a time when expectations and valuation are both high To be clear, we have much more conviction in the long leg of this trade and intend to write a longer piece on the topic, and the short leg will require a recession to work TRADE #4: Recession Long-Short Portfolio for a crash landing This basket is long defensive companies and short cyclical and vulnerable ones, focusing on both companies that do poorly during times of economic weakness and companies with idiosyncratic reasons to outperform during those times (think payday lenders, pawn shops, trade schools, companies benefiting from people going out less etc.)